India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is bracing for a fiercely contested state election in Bihar starting on Thursday, in a race analysts say could determine the stability of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coalition and reveal the limits of his influence in key battleground states.
Voting in Bihar will take place in two phases, on Thursday and next Tuesday, with results due next Friday. The outcome will not only decide Bihar’s leadership but could also set the tone for a series of key state polls next year in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
The outcome of each state election carries added significance for Modi’s BJP, which lost its outright majority in last year’s parliamentary polls and now relies heavily on regional allies – particularly Bihar’s influential Janata Dal United (JDU) led by Nitish Kumar.
A win for the BJP-JDU alliance would bolster Modi’s authority both within his party and its ideological parent, the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, while tightening his grip on national politics, according to analysts.
A cyclist rides past election banners displayed along a street in Patna on Saturday. Photo: AFP
A cyclist rides past election banners displayed along a street in Patna on Saturday. Photo: AFP
The BJP-led bloc is locked in a close contest with a rival alliance comprising the regional Rashtriya Janata Dal, headed by rising political figure Tejashwi Yadav, and the main national opposition party, the Indian National Congress.
“It will be a very close fight for sure. Nobody seems to be sure of the outcome,” said Kingshuk Nag, an independent political commentator, noting that the BJP has never won an election in Bihar without support from a regional party.
The coming state elections would be complex on several fronts – including Modi’s BJP not having identified Kumar, Bihar’s current chief minister, as their candidate for the state’s top position, he said.
This could have repercussions for even the federal coalition as Kumar has a reputation for often switching political sides and may again be tempted to do so, depending on the results of the state elections and what position he secures for himself and his party members, analysts say.
Kumar is likely to play a significant role in the Bihar polls as he commands a following among extremely backward castes, a group of socially and economically disadvantaged castes that are considered more marginalised than the broader Other Backward Classes (OBC), according to Nag.
Tejashwi Yadav, leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal party, addresses a rally in Darbhanga on Thursday. Photo: AFP
Tejashwi Yadav, leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal party, addresses a rally in Darbhanga on Thursday. Photo: AFP
Rival political leader Yadav, son of former Bihar chief ministers Lalu Prasad Yadav and his wife Rabri Devi, as well as a former professional cricketer, has a greater following among the OBC sections – setting the stage for a close contest.
The significant role that the two marginalised sections were likely to play in the state elections would be an unprecedented phenomenon as previously political clashes usually centred on upper castes such as Brahmins – wealthier sections – and backward sections, Nag said.
Yadav has also astutely sought to woo the state’s youth with promises of employment and improving farmers’ income by promising to pay a higher price for their crops than those paid by the existing government authorities, two issues which are seen as the BJP’s underbelly that affected the party even in the last parliamentary elections, analysts say.
Wheels within wheels
However, Yadav will also be hobbled by the legacy of his parents, who have been associated with several major corruption scandals, most notably the Fodder Scam and the ongoing land-for-jobs scam.
The elder Yadav and his party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), were in power in Bihar continuously from 1990 to 2005 – a period that was also marked by crime and lawlessness.
As chief minister, Kumar has a reputation for good governance despite changing political allegiances several times.
“There is no doubt that Tejashwi Yadav is showing promise and has matured politically. But there is also a question about whether he can emerge out of the image of his father or some of the dirt of the past will stick to him,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhay, an independent political commentator.
The BJP and the JDU have been reminding voters of RJD’s past record, saying that voting it back to power will mean a return of the “jungle raj”, or lawlessness.
Mukhopadhyay said it remained unknown whether Yadav’s prospects would be dented because of the party’s legacy or if he would be seen as a shiny, new leader.
Prashant Kishor (centre) is showered with flower petals during his roadshow at Muzaffarpur on Friday. Photo: AFP
Prashant Kishor (centre) is showered with flower petals during his roadshow at Muzaffarpur on Friday. Photo: AFP
The state elections have been further complicated by the entry of Prashant Kishor. Colloquially known as “PK”, the former political strategist who successfully orchestrated campaigns for several leaders, including Modi and Kumar, is now the founder of the Jan Suraaj Party.
“Bihar has traditionally hero worshipped people who have sacrificed something in their professional lives. He would be looked upon as someone who gave up money and fame to work for the people,” Mukhopadhyay said.
Kishor’s party could potentially draw voters from wealthier and more educated sections of the state’s population.
“If there is a tie or no clear winner after the elections, he [Kishor] can be a deciding factor,” Nag said.
Source: SouthChina Morning post