India was hoping that something positive would come out from the talks between the Foreign Ministers of India and China at Mosco on September 10. But India is frustrated that in the 5 point plan there is no mention of restoration of status-quo-ante of April 2020 at Eastern Ladakh where China is sitting on Indian territory.
Has China threatened India regarding the Ladakh border?
The political commentators in India have already started acknowledging that China has humiliated India (seen by China as a threat to its interests for CPEC and through Quad) on the Ladakh border by acquiring Indian territory and it is going to remain the same.
One such acknowledgement is the statement of Madhav Nalapat the Editorial Director of ‘ITV Network’ and ‘The Sunday Guardian’ in an interview to ‘Hudson Institute, USA’ where Nalapat said that “They (Chinese) want to teach us (Indians) a lesson and humiliate us, beat us to the ground and destroy our self confidence for the simple reason that their plan of dominating the Indo-pacific requires a compliant India in their words a ‘neutral India’.
They (Chinese) want to send message to the USA, their target is the USA and they know that if the USA & India come together then India is bigger and consequential hence it (China) wants to destroy its (USA’s) self confidence about – ‘this country (India) is worth having as partner’.”
Moreover if India is seen by China to be acting further against China then China can even help in creating mini-Khalistan due to Dharamshala / SFF factor.
Any perspicacious political observer must have known that India is not worth having as a partner in military matters but the USA needed China to bring this reality to dawn on the USA. Anyway, it has not harmed the USA much but on the contrary it has harmed India immensely and has brought the region on the brink of war.
The Ladakah episode has shattered the macho image of PM Modi which gave tremendous electoral benefit to Modi / BJP when it was tried by Hindu majority India successfully against Indian Muslims, Kashmiri Muslims and Muslim Pakistan.
Xi’s China has turned out to be the hard nut to crack for India
This loss of face will be politically suicidal for PM Modi, BJP and Hindutva forces which they will not allow / tolerate at-any-cost whatsoever (including nuclear war out of desperation between three nuclear countries India v/s China + Pakistan, which veteran Indian military officers have already started recommending through the media).
Therefore it is mainly in the interest of India that it ultimately comes out victorious from this difficult situation, which it can, if does the following: –
(1) There is a common practice in India that ‘Ghee’ (clarified butter) is given to impart strength to a weak person but it is not given if he / she is sick. Rather first sickness is cured then only Ghee is beneficial for imparting strength to such a person. Similarly presently India is sick about military matters hence the USA & India should not think about providing military help to India (from the USA etc) unless India first cures its martial weakness mainly on its own.
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(2) India should think of coming out of said present problems with China [and also with Pakistan which is bound to join China especially for militarily snatching Kashmir (if not entire J&K) from India] in three stages namely (i) India should neutralize China by referring Indo-China border dispute to UN Judicial Commission;
(ii) India should tackle Greater-India region for eliminating communalism from it through dual citizenship in Greater-India (Pakistan and Bangladesh and India) and plebiscite in united-J&K;
(iii) After thus removing political & martial weakness, India should handle China issue with the military help of the USA (and its allies) about human rights in China (which has become threat not only to its neighbors but also to entire mankind as was revealed during on-going Corona-pandemic) including human rights of Tibetans and Uyghurs, either by keeping these regions as part of China or through their independence.
(3) The Indo-China border dispute is a legal dispute unlike India’s dispute with Pakistan (which is a political dispute about united-J&K). Hence this Indo-China border dispute should be referred to the ‘UN Judicial Commission’ which China can not refuse as a permanent member of the UN. [It is like resolving a dispute between two parties in a country.
In India the Executive Magistrate maintains status-quo of disputed property and directs the contending parties (under section 145 of Criminal Procedure Code) to get the title decided by civil court which will justify the possession]. If China obstructs it through veto etc then India should give threat / ultimatum that India will leave the UN if said UN Judicial Commission is not constituted and which is bound to make the UN fall in line.
Problem of communalism in Greater-India
(4) As far as dealing with the problem of communalism in Greater-India which resulted in partition of India in 1947 and also in chronic & gory Kashmir problem, India should solve it by two mechanisms. First by Dual Citizenship in Greater-India and second by plebiscite in united-J&K as mentioned below:-
(i) About 1 million were reportedly killed and about 15 million displaced in most gory situations due to partition. There was no legal provision for population transfer due to partition hence these tens of millions of displaced (due to violence) people should have been rehabilitated in their native country.
This illegal population transfer (due to violence) is the main cause of communally poisoning and of emboldening the communal forces in Indian subcontinent. Now at least these displaced people should be given dual citizenship so that communalism can be eliminated from Greater India . This will also make redundant the controversial (and main cause of 2020 riots in Delhi) the ‘Citizen Amendment Act’ of India (along with threatened ‘National Register for Citizens’).
(ii) India should ensure (even under military pressure if necessary) the dual citizenship (one for India and other for Pakistan or Bangladesh) for about 160 million Hindus and Muslims (~ 80 million Hindus and same for Muslims) who were displaced during partition [about 20 % of their population (Hindus) from each of Pakistan and Bangladesh were expelled whereas Muslims remain same rather increased little to about 14 % in India not to talk of tens of millions of Muslim illegal immigrants in India mainly from Bangladesh].
India should also ensure (militarily if necessary) that these Hindus & Muslims who utilize dual citizenship in other country are able to live over there in proper law & order conditions which will ensure their human rights as enshrined in ICCPR of the UN.
(iii) India should ensure Plebiscite in united-J&K as mandated by the ‘Instrument of Accession’ (IoA) the relevant part of which reads as -“[the question of Accession should be decided in accordance with the wishes of the people of the State, it is my Government’s wish that, as soon as law and order have been restored in Kashmir, and her soil cleared of the invader, the question of the State’s Accession should be settled by a reference to the people. Yours Sincerely Sd/- Mountbatten of Burma]”.
(iv) For this plebiscite India should bring Pakistan side of united-J&K under its administrative control (and also free from outsiders) as mentioned in IoA and if China or any other country tries to intervene militarily in favor of Pakistan to resist it or if Pakistan threatens or found to use its nukes to resist it, then and only then India should ask military help from the USA otherwise India should get it done on its own (with the help of Indian Security Forces, if necessary).
(5) During take over of remaining united-J&K (militarily if necessary) for plebiscite and during the achievement of dual citizenship if situation arises then India should be prepared for realizing Greater-India (and may be SAARC in second stage) on the basis of secularism, democracy, federalism and rule-of-law in which united-J&K, Balochistan and other region of Greater-India like Khalistan (having disputes or freedom movement or armed struggle) can join as 9th, 10th, 11th etc members of SAARC.
It is hoped that India will come out of its British-India mindset (where unlike the USA, India did not raise guns for independence against the Britishers and out of martial weakness rather preferred trifurcation of the motherland) and instead now will solve its military problems with China & Pakistan on its own as mentioned above in two stages which will give requisite strength and power to India, which in said third stage will entitle India to seek military help from the USA & other countries for permanently solving the problems with China.
It is further hoped that the USA will cooperate with India in becoming healthy (free from martial sickness) as mentioned above before providing martial assistance to India for tackling China.