Covid-19’s third shock wave: Risk of hunger pandemic

by Abbas Adil

SHAFAQNQ| By Leila Yazdani : While COVID-19 is dominating headlines, another kind of emergency is threatening the lives of millions of people around the world—food insecurity.

The two are very much intertwined, however. The covid-19 pandemic’s impact on hunger around the world could be worse than when food prices spiked calamitously in 2007 and 2008. By the end of 2020, authorities estimate that upwards of 265 million people could be on the brink of starvation globally, almost double the current rate of crisis-level food insecurity according to Visual Capitalist.

Third Shock Wave: widespread human starvation

Major world disasters produce multiple ripple effects. Like a powerful tsunami, they trigger one shock wave after another, each producing injury and mayhem, The Nation mentioned. In the case of Covid-19, the first wave was the global health crisis, still spreading around the world. Next came the stay-at-home requirements and the resulting shutdown of the world economy, resulting in massive job layoffs everywhere. These, in turn, are producing a third wave, possibly even more catastrophic in its outcome: the collapse of global food-supply systems and widespread human starvation.

Now, some countries may face an excruciating trade-off between saving lives or livelihoods.

Experts say a multitude of factors are coming together in a ‘perfect storm’ for many developing countries especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, as well as in countries already facing crises, like Yemen, Venezuela and Congo.

But now the pandemic and accompanying national lockdowns are throwing tens of millions who lived on the edge into poverty and battering delicately balanced food supply chains.

The worst humanitarian crisis since World War Two

The chief of the UN’s food relief agency has warned, plunging tens of millions into starvation unless immediate action is taken.

World Food Programme (WFP) executive director David Beasley said that even before the arrival of Covid-19, he had been warning world leaders 2020 would bring “the worst humanitarian crisis since World War Two”, Independent reported.

An annual WFP report estimated that 135 million people face “crisis-level” hunger 2020, with Mr Beasley telling the UN security council that deepening crises such as those in Yemen and Syria, more frequent natural disasters and changing weather patterns meant the world was “already facing a perfect storm”. These forecasts were produced before the pandemic – which Mr Beasley warned could push an additional 130 million people to the brink of starvation.

What causes global food crises before COVID-19?

First, wars and conflicts causes global food crises. Think about Yemen, Syria, northeast Nigeria, Burkina Faso, South Sudan. By far, the biggest reason for this hunger and poverty and misery is war.

Second, climate shocks—large-scale hurricanes, droughts, those types of things.

Third, economic instability—devaluations of currencies, high debt, all of that cause global food crises.

Fourth, which is the biggest, is that there’s never only one—it’s always a combination of these three, which puts millions upon millions of people into destitution.

So the reason why we are where we are, in terms of global poverty and global hunger, is these three things. But then comes covid-19.

How the coronavirus crisis is affecting food crisis?

Movement restrictions necessary to prevent the virus’ spread will likely disrupt the transport and processing of food, leading to declines in crop and livestock production and sales and dangerously reduce the availability of even the most basic food items.

Meanwhile, rising unemployment as a result of lockdowns could severely diminish some people’s purchasing power, driving down demand for higher quality products amid rising food prices as a result of protectionist policies, depreciating currencies and a lack of agricultural labour.

Furthermore, the virus could create the conditions for fresh or renewed conflicts as it erodes livelihoods and spreads fear, possibly inflaming tensions between refugee and host communities, or escalating discrimination against foreign workers.

Even if poor governments were able to pay workers, most workers are informal

“In wealthier countries, there is at least the potential for the government to step in as the wage provider of last resort but poorer countries lack the fiscal space to do this,” says Dr Amrit Amirapu, Lecturer in Economics, University of Kent, Telegraph told.

“Even if [poorer] governments were able to pay workers, most workers in these countries are informal so the government has no record of them and the process of getting them funds is more challenging.”

Anticipatory action to safeguard livelihoods and increase access to food is urgently needed to prevent new or worsening food crises. Preventing food crises cannot wait until the health crisis is resolved.

UN calls for international solidarity to ease effects of Covid-19 on food security.


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