The year 2020 augmented the plight of the people of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). In order to strengthen its control which it established by revoking Article 370 and ending the so-called autonomous status of the dispute region on August 5, 2019; the Modi regime, in 2020, changed the domicile act and snatched thousands of acres of land in the Muslim-majority valley of Kashmir in order to establish non-Muslim settlements.
In a bid to seek legitimacy for its illegal acts, the District Development Council polls in the IIOJK were held from November 28 to December 19, but they rather resulted in the defeat of the BJP at the hands of anti-Modi Alliance for Gupkar Declaration which calls for pro-self-governance. The alliance — a conglomeration of seven mainstream J&K-based parties including the National Conference of Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) — won 112 of 280 seats whereas BJP got 74, independent candidates 49, and Congress 26 seats. The voter turnout of 51%, despite the boycott of Kashmiri resistance groups like the Hurriyat Conference, is amazing and reflects the frustration, particularly among the Kashmiri Muslims, against India’s repressive and discriminatory acts. If the Hurriyat Conference was arguing that participating in such elections will render legitimacy to India’s occupation of Kashmir, the Gupkar alliance justified its decision to participate in district development council polls by arguing that its participation will deny BJP legitimate status.
India’s desperate quest for seeking legitimacy in IIOJK is a reality and must be taken seriously by Pakistan. After failing to seek popular support particularly from the valley, the Modi regime followed a two-pronged approach. First, it tried to use carrots by announcing so-called development programmes, particularly in tourism and infrastructure development like extending railways from Jammu to Srinagar and then to Ladakh. Offering employment opportunities to locals however was counter-productive because Kashmiri Muslim refused to fall into that trap. Second, it attempted to ensure that Pakistan’s narrative challenging the absorption of J&K would not get any major international support. As a result, India managed to prevent Pakistan from calling a special session of the UN General Assembly and Security Council exclusively to discuss New Delhi’s unilateral revocation of Article 370 and unleashing a reign of terror in Kashmir. Even the 47th OIC Foreign Minister’s meeting held in Niamey, Niger, in November, was unable to condemn India’s brutal policy in IIOJK and isolate New Delhi diplomatically.
How much space the Modi regime will get following the District Development Council polls and to what extent will India try to prove that it has obtained a legitimate status in IIOJK as a result of local government elections, is yet to be seen. The fact that BJP secured only three seats from Kashmir is enough to prove its weak and unpopular standing in the territory. It means if elections are held in the future in the valley, then BJP and other ultra-right wing Hindu nationalist parties will not have any chance to succeed. The seven-party alliance, despite intimidation and pressure tactics used by the puppet government in Srinagar, managed to defeat BJP. One can hope that the BJP’s crushing defeat will compel New Delhi to rethink its harsh measures and seek the option of dialogue in order to normalise the situation particularly in the valley. It is also known to the Modi regime that its standoff in J&K will complicate the situation and provide Pakistan an opportunity to further internationalise the Kashmir conflict to the detriment of Indian interests.
For India seeking legitimacy in IIOJK is essential because of three main reasons. First, as long as the local population remains indifferent and hostile to its repressive measures following unilateral revocation of Article 370, there cannot be peace and stability in the Muslim-dominated valley. New Delhi also knows the fact that Kashmiri Muslims hate the Indian government particularly its military because of serious human rights violations. Efforts to change the demography of the valley by allowing settlement of non-Muslims and the seizure of land tend to further antagonise the local people against the occupant forces.
Second, in 2020, despite its efforts the Modi regime failed to neutralise hostility and hatred against the Indian state. Its measures to change the domicile act and patronise Hindu population particularly Kashmiri Pundits to settle in the valley so as to reduce the Muslim majority remained a consistent practice of New Delhi during 2020. Although, the Modi regime tried to strengthen its hold over the valley, there was no letup in state repression like extra-judicial killings, abductions of Muslim youth in particular, and harassment of women and children by the Indian military.
Third, having gotten poor results of its 2020 policy on its occupied territories of Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, the Modi regime will try to change its strategy in 2021 by reaching out to common people by providing economic incentives and better employment opportunities to Muslim youths of the valley. New Delhi will also try to influence the Gupkar alliance as it is composed of the same type of political parties who were pro-India but changed their stance after the revocation of Article 370. Both the Gupkar alliance and the Modi regime through its government in Srinagar will try to reach some face saving formula which can help normalise and legitimise the situation in the valley. One such face saving formula may be a verdict by the Indian Supreme Council on petitions challenging the Jammu & Kashmir Reorganization Act. So far, the Indian Supreme Court has not given a verdict annulling the act of August 5 and if it gives a decision against that Act, it will be a safe exit for the Modi regime from a difficult situation.
What will be the options for Pakistan in 2021 as in 2020, Islamabad tried to challenge India’s quest for legitimacy in IIOJK but was unable to isolate New Delhi. In 2021, Pakistan must approach the UN to explicitly condemn India for violating the Security Council resolutions on J&K and unilaterally annexing the disputed territory. Cleverly, in 2020, India used the pandemic to strengthen the lockdown, thereby preventing demonstrations and also religious gatherings in the valley. Pakistan should have made concerted efforts to expose India’s inhuman and repressive measures in IIOJK but political polarisation during 2020 and the economic fallout of Covid-19 made it difficult for it to take drastic measures in support of the beleaguered Kashmiri population. Pakistan’s Prime Minister talked about making Gilgit-Baltistan the fifth province of Pakistan, on an interim basis, which would create complications and weaken Islamabad’s stance on Kashmir because India will justify its annexation of Ladakh, and Jammu and Kashmir by taking the example of G-B.