Shafaqna Science: New research indicates that without substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, up to 70% of the global population could experience significant changes in extreme weather conditions over the next two decades.
The study emphasizes the potential impacts of drastic shifts in temperature and rainfall, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive climate action to mitigate these effects and help societies prepare for more frequent and severe climate events.
Climate Crisis Alert:
Nearly three-quarters of the global population could face rapid changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall within the next 20 years unless greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced, according to a new study.
Conducted by scientists from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research with support from the University of Reading, the research suggests that, even with efforts to meet the Paris Agreement’s targets, 20% of the global population may still face extreme weather risks, compared to 70% if minimal action is taken.
**Scientific Insights on Extreme Weather:**
Published in *Nature Geoscience*, the study reveals how global warming could combine with natural weather variations to cause decade-long periods of rapid changes in both extreme temperatures and rainfall.
Few studies have examined the regional impacts of extreme weather. Lead author Dr. Carley Iles from CICERO explained, “We focus on regional changes due to their greater relevance to the experiences of people and ecosystems, compared with global averages, and identify areas likely to see substantial increases in the frequency of extreme events over the coming decades.”
**Unprecedented Conditions:**
Using extensive climate model simulations, the study shows that in a high-emissions scenario, 70% of the current global population, primarily in the tropics and subtropics, will likely experience rapid increases in both temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20 years. If strong emissions reductions are achieved, this figure could drop to 20%, or roughly 1.5 billion people.
Rapid changes in extreme weather increase the risk of unprecedented conditions, which can lead to severe impacts, including heat stress, excess mortality, ecosystem damage, reduced agricultural yields, cooling power plant difficulties, and transportation disruptions. Extreme precipitation can cause flooding, damage infrastructure and settlements, increase erosion, and degrade water quality, making society particularly vulnerable when multiple hazards occur simultaneously.
**The Paradox of Pollution Cleanup:**
Co-author Dr. Laura Wilcox from the University of Reading noted, “We also found that rapid air pollution cleanup, especially in Asia, accelerates increases in warm extremes and affects the Asian summer monsoons. While cleaning the air is crucial for health, it has also masked some global warming effects. The necessary cleanup could combine with global warming, leading to more extreme conditions in the coming decades.”
The study highlights the likelihood of rapid climate changes and their implications for climate adaptation. “Even in the best-case scenario, rapid changes will affect 1.5 billion people. The only way to address this is by preparing for a much higher likelihood of unprecedented extreme events in the next 1-2 decades,” said Dr. Bjørn H. Samset of CICERO, who contributed to the study.